Tuesday, May 1, 2007Tuesday April 31, 2007
An Open Letter to the City of Toronto 's Change is in the Air Committee
Change is in the Air is the city of
Toronto 's 27 point action plan to a Sustainable Future.
Jeff Berg's response :
There most certainly is something missing and very unfortunately it is a glaring gaping hole of a missing. That being the discussion about how Energy Security and Peak Oil & Gas ties in to Climate Change and the pace of renewable energy production and energy conservation (megawatts & negawatts) that will be needed if we are to guarantee that the lights and space heating requirements of our citizens is universally ensured.
Now it is true that one can refer to Peak Oil as a theory but one might just as usefully refer to the theory about the shape of our fair planet as the Round Earth Theory. i.e. Not usefully at all.
That oil is finite is quite as sure as the law that describes entropy. What is also sure is that at some point the production of the substance that enables 98% of the world's transportation will begin to decline. On what precise day the global supply will begin to decline is impossible to ascertain and will only be known for certain a few years after it has occurred. What is not impossible to ascertain is how long it will take for the world to adjust to this inevitable reality. The best report to date on this subject comes from a giant in the energy field Dr. Robert Hirsch. His list of accomplishments is extraordinary to the point of legendary but it is possible that his greatest contribution of all will turn out to be the Peak Oil mitigation analysis that he has recently done for the U.S. Dept. of Energy. http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/the_hirsch_report.pdf
The upshot of this report is that if we started a crash program today to deal with the effects of declining oil availability it would take close to a twenty year lead on the peaking of oil production in order to avoid the very serious economic repercussions that will occur if we wait for the event itself to react.
What does this have to do with Climate Change you ask? Well I'm glad you asked that question.
Now while it is true to say that the set of facts about the inevitable decline in oil production being brought to the public arena by groups like ASPO, GPM, PCI, PCT, Uppsala University, etc., are fairly obscure they are second hand knowledge compared to the facts being brought to the fore by David Hughes and Julian Darley about North America's looming decline in natural gas availability.
David Hughes has for 31 years being a geophysicist employed by NR Canada, the Canadian Geological Survey and is a senior analyst on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee. As a result he is very well placed to make fact based projections about future natural gas supplies. Julian Darley is the founder of Global Public Media, the Post Carbon Institute and the author of High Noon for Natural Gas. This also being the name of a must-listen six part CBC radio series by the Governor General Award winning journalist Andrew Nikiforuk. http://globalpublicmedia.com/andrew_nikiforuk_on_high_noon_for_fossil_fuels
And if all this is not enough for you and you prefer your analysis from less academic and more business oriented sources the following is what Lee Raymond has to say about natural gas supply in North America . Mr. Raymond is a former CEO of ExxonMobil and member of the board of directors of America 's leading think tank on oil and gas the American Petroleum Institute.
"Gas production has peaked in North America ," Chief Executive Lee Raymond told reporters at the Reuters Energy Summit.
Asked whether production would continue to decline even if two huge arctic gas pipeline projects were built, Raymond said, "I think that's a fair statement , unless there's some huge find that nobody has any idea where it would be." [...]
"The facts are that gas production continues to decline, and will start to decline even more rapidly. By the time we get to that period (2010-2012), we'll need it badly." [...]
What these findings mean in relation to the Change is in the Air plan are easily summarized:
• Natural gas supply will never be greater than it is today in North America . I will not go into why it will not be possible for us to import our way out of this problem. If you wish to discuss why my contact info is at the bottom of the page.
• Natural gas well decline rates are on average 21% p/a in Canada and 28% p/a in the U.S. I feel it important to stress here that shocking as these decline rates may seem these numbers are common knowledge among those who study this area.
• We have been able to plateau natural gas production by increasing unconventional production like CBM but events are dictating that we will experience significant shortfalls in natural gas supply in the near term.
• 50% of Canada 's space heating requirements are met by natural gas 33% with electricity. Toronto numbers are likely to be quite similar.
• The 1990's saw a marked increase in the production of natural gas fired electrical production. The idea at least in part was that we would solve our coal pollution problem by moving to natural gas. A noble intent for sure but then again if wishes were fishes we'd all cast nets.
• Toronto 's Portland Energy Centre is a continuation of this mistaken trend. Natural gas is too valuable to be used in this way. Highest use must be a priority concern if our energy decisions are to achieve maximal results.
• According to Chapter 6 of NAFTA we must continue to export the same proportion of our natural gas and oil “regardless of scarcity”.
With this said as context I wish to assert that I believe the nanosecond that people's energy security is compromised is the very same second that they begin to be much less concerned with the long-term issue presented by climate change and much more concerned with the immediacy of the discomfort this insecurity is causing and how it can be alleviated, NOW. It is also the very same moment at which they resolve to vote for whoever promises to keep the lights on and the heat flowing. For any of you knowledgeable about the subject of energy you know that the only energy source immediately to available to North America for these purposes is coal and to a lesser degree wood and other biofuel pellets. You also know that the only fuel switching immediately available to Torontonians for the purposes of space heating is electricity and burning things. The implications are obvious.
Canadians will I agree be willing to sacrifice a great deal for the good of all generations to follow. I even agree that they will be willing to forsake much more of their consumerist tendencies than the business community might like if it means avoiding climate catastrophe. What they will not be willing to sacrifice is their lights and their space heating. If forced to choose they will instead opt for coal, nuclear and burning things and hope for the best in terms of the long-term issues these energy sources represent.
Therefore what absolutely positively must be done if we hope to reduce in absolute terms the amount of GHG's and pollutants going into the air is to much more aggressively pursue the production of renewable watts and liquids and even more aggressively pursue AND FUND the potential that exists for conservation. (the negawatts earlier mentioned)
Jeff Berg and I am a member of a political action committee and public outreach group called Post Carbon Toronto. www.postcarbontoronto.org Our mission is to raise awareness among policy makers about the inter-relationship of Energy & Emissions and the challenges and opportunities these two E's present. Also part of our mandate is to help raise media and public awareness as much as it is in our power to do so in order to help gain for our policy makers the room they need today in order to make the best possible decisions for our future energy security and atmospheric chemistry. What I am writing here reflects my own views and not necessarily the views of the group but I do speak for the group PCT is the group that was primarily responsible for creating the pledgeTOgreen campaign that Mayor Miller and 11 councillors signed. www.pledgeTOgreen.com We are also taking the lead in creating the Accountability Session that was part of the pledge that these members of City Hall signed and will take place in the fall of 2007.
