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The Big Picture From time to time, this section will feature provacative articles examining crucial issues focusing on the environment, social justice, or important issues about the development and practice of democracy. The following article is the first of a series. It originally appeared as a letter in the Picton Gazette. posted: November 3, 2005
"Conservation is the answer": But what is the question?by Don Chisholm Oil and energy are very much in the news as the Ontario government is feeling the heat between promised actions and realistic possibilities. "Conservation is the answer", headed a recent technically sound article recommending energy conservation as an important first step for energy hungry Ontarians. The writer quoted a variety of credible sources and suggested that the Federal, "One Ton Challenge" goal of 20% savings overall might be an achievable goal. I quite agree with the conservation answer, but this answer needs always to be framed in context of other associated questions. Let's say we meet the challenge and we conserve down to 80% of today's usage. Let's say also that economic growth requires roughly a proportional energy growth. This is not an exact relationship, but it's close enough to make a point. Both Federal and Provincial governments measure success through growth in economic throughput (Gross Domestic Product - GDP), all of this creating more and more jobs. If our governments are reasonably successful in promoting: population growth; export growth; growth in domestic consumption, in a banner year they might achieve 5% GDP growth, or a medium year it might be 2%. (The federal immigration quota recently went to 300,000 to help sustain growth!) But with 2% compound economic growth per year, roughly equal to 2% growth in energy use per year, then in 7 years we would be back up to 100% of today's energy usage. And then we would have a much larger population and associated human activity in every area including food production, more home heating, cars, more civil infrastructure, etc. etc. And if we achieve 5% GDP growth, this process takes only 5 years of compounded growth to neutralize all of the improvements we had made in energy efficiency. But why do governments do all in their power to promote growth? Because the economic/monetary system has evolved in such a way that it not only depends on growth, it would collapse without it. With today's fiat money system (money based on trust and with no physical commodity, such as the old gold standard), and fractional reserve banking (now) controlled by commercial banks, both debts ~and interest on debts~ must always be paid back. Since the interest is created from nothing, the system needs throughput growth for balance we are now locked into growth forever, or until? Today we have a dangerous mix of an imaginary money system controlled by an interweave of complex economic laws derived by disparate economic specialists. And through our governments the economists drive the physical actives of humans who toil with Mother Nature's physical resources, both capital reserves and renewable. While the fiat money system can grow unrestrained, Mother Nature is a limited commodity. Based on the many ecological alarm bells, from global warming to mass extinctions and peak-oil, we appear to have already taken too much from nature. She may now be in the process of calling our physical loan! Recent books, such as Jared Diamond's, "Collapse", or, from the CBC Massey Lectures, "A Short History of Progress", by Ronald Wright, tell of civilizations past that collapsed because the human masses blindly followed leaders who followed traditional customs that appeared too rigid to change, even while facing stark contradictory realities. We seem to be about there now. So I agree that, "conservation is the answer", but only to the question about our immediate energy choices. We need now some good political questions and answers that reflect the real world we live in. Don Chisholm posted: June 27, 2004 Oil In The Wind
by Don Chisholm Those who oppose the development of wind energy farms do a great disservice to the people of the county today, but especially to land owners, mostly farmers, and to the well-being of following generations. But the issue is not simple. About 20 years ago my engineering background caused me to wonder about and examine data on global energy resources. The results were rather disturbing so I’ve since followed the matter closely. Every bit of the civil/industrial infrastructure of industry, medicine, transportation, food/farming, etc., that supports our relatively affluent lifestyles is dependent on energy flow, and the principle energy source is now, and has been for some time, oil, globally about 80%. Globally, oil availability has reached, or will very soon reach, a perilous point known for many years as Hubert’s Peak, www.hubbertpeak.com. “The peak” defines the junction of two events. (1):
Even though about half of earth’s historic oil may be still in
the ground, it’s growing harder and harder to find and retrieve
as many of the large fields now dry up - causing global production
to slow and decline.
(2): All industrial nations measure progress by exponential industrial/economic growth (each year must be bigger than last year). Oil is a non-renewable resource that is the principle energy driver of economic growth. After “the peak” - the supply of oil can no longer meet demand. |
This is not new information to people who have studied the matter. A great deal has been written about the issue, a few examples being:
By 1980 we were pumping about 40 million barrels of oil per day out of Mother Earth’s billions of years endowment. Just try to imagine that volume each day! (http://pages.ca.inter.net/~jhwalsh/oiltrdv.pdf) But today, only 24 years later, we pump almost double that number at 78 million as demand for more and more continues - while we enter era of The Peak. The economists who guide our government’s quest for endless exponential economic growth appear to sincerely believe that as oil runs out, the free market will develop alternatives. But Energy is not like any other commodity and the laws of physics overrule economic theory. Unfortunately, most economists don’t study physics, but they do lead our governments to pursue infinite growth within a finite, now suffering, planetary ecosphere. A great deal of myth and misinformation about energy has emerged from the political tensions at play. For example, some say we can switch to:
These facts above are but a brief paraphrase of the issues involved while leaving out such items as human population growth or the oil/coal related progressive destabilization of ecosystem through global warming, or the fact that higher levels of government still prefer economic growth to human well-being as a progress indicator. But what can Prince Edward County do about this? PEC is unique in Ontario as an island county, relatively rich in energy flow from the winds of Lake Ontario, and with about as much sunshine as the rest. With the people’s acceptance of energy realities and bold leadership:
With the above issues in mind, I sincerely hope that those who oppose the development of wind farms will withdraw their objection and turn their personal energies toward making PEC as fossil fuel independent as possible. Your children will thank you, and when you tank up to go visit them, remember, “With every visit to the gas pump, after all, the end of cheap oil draws closer.” Don Chisholm 613 476 1700 |
"There
must be no barriers for freedom in inquiry. There is no place
for dogma in science. The scientist is free, and must be free
to ask any question, to doubt any assertion, to seek for any
evidence, to correct any errors." —J.
Robert Oppenheimer, 1949