Local Power, Democracy & The Writing on the Wall
Local Power = Democracy
Jeff Berg
PostCarbon Toronto
Increasingly my guts and my head agree that the only workable solution to climate change, environmental degradation, fossil fuel depletion and the erosion of democracy is a massive drive towards energy security derived from local renewable sources and the upper limits of achievable conservation. Germany 's Passivehaus accomplishments indicate that this upper limit is very high indeed. But let us take our own advice about being local and tout the book U of T Prof Danny Harvey has written: " A Handbook on Low-Energy Buildings and District-Energy Systems". A work already being referred to as a "bible", a "tour de force" and an "instant classic".
http://tinyurl.com/2f936d
My central intuition and guiding principle is that power generation and energy, and political, economic and military power became so closely intertwined throughout the 19 th and 20 th Century and now into the Middle East occupied 21st as to become in all essentials synonyms.
As a result of this core insight and intellectual lynchpin I am now beginning to at least dimly apprehend that the way forward is via locally generated renewable energy. All other avenues thought through to their logical end fail in that they may gain us some time but ultimately leave us mired in the same destructive consumerism that is surpassing the planets limits and with the same military Keynesian and "homeland security" economy that has brought us the edge of a martial abyss of existential proportions.
And very unfortunately the logic of history tells me that despite whatever truth this analysis may contain that we are not immediately going to begin to follow a path to genuine sustainability and locally generated energy security. That we are instead going to continue to fulfill Churchill's apposite quote about America . "
America can always be counted on to do the right thing....after they have exhausted every other possibility."
That we should instead move with all possible haste towards locally generated renewable energy does not mean that there is no place for the hydrocarbon molecule or the stored energy fossil fuels represent. It is an incredibly useful molecule after all and if you've ever tried to dig a basement with a shovel or make a computer without it you understand how much these molecules can do for us. It does however unequivocally mean that they must be reserved for their highest uses which includes not even one American SUV. And that we must be thinking out unto the seventh generation to ensure that this one time gift from nature leads to the highest possible standard of living for the longest possible period of time for all of our citizens. If only so that our generation is not seen as declaring war on the future. Something that is already being sensed by those who have followed "the greatest generation".
All other paths lead only to the blackest of all possible ironies. i.e. The rate and manner by which we use up our non-renewable resources will do naught but serve to collapse our renewable ones leaving us at the end of the day with neither.
In a nutshell military and security capitalism and non-renewable power generation have got to cease to be our prime economic drivers. Furthermore the only place that we should be invading is our own communities with corps after corps of renewable energy engineers and labourers. This army will likely meet with some pretty stiff resistance from some quarters but will no doubt have overwhelming public opinion support and zero problems with a local insurgency.
The companion piece that I have written follows and includes a link to a 30 minute Real Player streamed interview of David Hughes by Global Public Media's Julian Darley. If you enjoy having space heating all winter long listen to it as it contains many an absolutely essential fact for all Canadians and Canadian leaders. (If you know any, let 'em know.)
*Democracy is here meant as a social organization principal leading to mechanisms that allow public opinion to be adhered to in public policy making.
"The 21st Century will everywhere be defined in the same way. Only those communities who produce their power locally and ensure the energy security of their citizens will escape the ravages of energy fascism." —Senor Juan G. Carbonel.
David Hughes & The Writing on the Wall
It is a very difficult thing to create a narrative that can go straight to the heart of our manifest energy and emission problems in a way that is acce
ssible to most. This interview however comes as close as anything that I have seen in a good long while.
Mr. Hughes is a senior analyst for the Canadian Geological Survey, a member of the Canadian Gas Potential Committee and employed by the Ministry of Natural Resources. He has been dealing with energy for the whole of his 31 year career and is exceptionally well qualified to tell us the following things:
A) What production levels we have achieved over the last few decades with natural gas, oil and coal.
B) What reserves are still available to be exploited.
C) At what rate we are likely to be able to extract these reserves.
D) What this will mean in terms of energy availability to the people in North America who rely daily on energy supplies. (i.e. over 99% of us)
In this wide ranging interview with Julian Darley of the Post Carbon Institute Mr. Hughes discusses the reserve and production projections for natural gas, oil and coal. His focus is primarily on the North American and Canadian scene though he does also touch on how the global energy situation is unfolding.
Of the very many important facts that he cites the following are I think key.
1) In the 'Lower 48' the U.S. is very likely at or near peak coal production.
As with any essential resource peak production will inevitably lead to a price spike and result in a period of frenzied exploitation. And while this will create a short-term plateau or at least mitigate the rate of decline nonetheless the writing is now on the wall for
U.S. coal as it is for global oil production and North American gas production.
2) Canada has peaked in terms of natural gas production. We are now drilling 4 times as many wells as we did in the 1990's but this has not increased production. It has however enabled the production decline rate to be mitigated.
3) 77% of Canada 's putative reserves have yet to be discovered. Theoretical reserves should not be treated as being in the same class as those that have felt a drill bit.
4) The average production rate decline for Canada 's really existing wells is 20%!
5) The U.S. has also peaked in terms of natural gas production and currently relies on Canada for 15% of their supplies which is 55% of our production. (3.6 Tcf to 6.5 Tcf)
Chapter 6 of NAFTA the "proportional sharing clause" states that we must continue to export even "in times of scarcity". The average decline rate for really existing U.S. gas wells is 28%.
6) North America will be facing natural gas shortfalls in the near term. (David Hughes' number is 3 years "if we are lucky".) To put not to fine a point on it we heat about 50% of our homes with natural gas and 33% with electricity which is increasingly being made by using natural gas. Yes our winters are getting warmer still......
7) As we go down the energy food chain the energy return on the energy invested also goes down. Ghawar and its like were able to return 100 units of energy for every one invested. Off shore fields like the North Sea are good for about a 17 to 1 return. The tar sands according to Mr. Hughes 2:1. (He likens the use of natural gas to create syncrude as equivalent to "Turning gold into lead.")
These facts are well known inside the energy industry. What however is not acknowledged and has so far at least been wholly under appreciated by almost everyone is the following.
8) The green house gas implications of #7 are staggeringly immense!
Effectively what #7 means is that if we use all of our considerable ingenuity and the immense wealth that we have currently to keep our current energy, production and distribution systems up and running then the next decade will see our GHG's be far higher than they are today. It will also mean that after those ten years we will have far less access to the very great amount of energy that will be needed to transition our current system to a renewable energy production and distribution system.
i.e. A sustainable one.
In a very fundamental way we as a society misinterpreted the march of progress. We misunderstood why many were getting wealthier and more comfortable. (Or at least most of us did.) Our belief in human ingenuity and inventiveness and the limitless future that this seemed to entail blinded us to the following central truth.
The true coin of the realm on this particular planet is energy and the flip side of this coin and the central limiting factor for all mammalian life is the impact that emissions have on atmospheric chemistry.
Understanding the central nature of energy and emissions to our wealth and health must be the next great mental and social evolution for humankind. For it is they and not monetarism, not corporatism, and most certainly not capital gains tax cuts that will secure us unto the seventh generation and hopefully beyond.
The following link will take you to Mr. Hughes' interview with Mr. Darley.
http://tinyurl.com/yj57d7
Note: This content may require the latest RealPlayer, which is not available on Windows 95, Mac OS9 or Linux systems.
Other articles by Jeff Berg are found here
